The financing costs, leverage, and trading volumes of BTC, ETH, and SOL show divergent signals that are not synchronized with their prices: on one hand, this indicates structural fragility, while on the other hand, it suggests potential opportunities. Multiple key price levels and derivatives indicators on various chains are converging to historically significant thresholds that often trigger large fluctuations, and the dominant market capital is switching.
BTC Approaching Key Breakthrough: High Open Interest and Low Funding Rates Coexist
BTC's price has recently consolidated and retreated, but open interest remains relatively high, indicating that leveraged funds have not significantly contracted. From a technical perspective, BTC is nearing the end of a symmetrical triangle, and future movements should focus on key support and resistance levels. The situation for ETH is similar: open interest is at a high level while funding rates are low, with leveraged positions still in place, but the decline in funding costs reflects a more cautious approach from traders. SOL has shown a combination of high open interest, low funding rates, and stable trading volume during the deleveraging process, which often indicates that the market has a greater response capacity to external factors.
Option Pricing Becomes Defensive, Short-Term Volatility May Amplify
In the options market, a decline in skew and an increase in protective positions indicate that some investors are preemptively avoiding potential risks. Overall implied pricing reflects considerations of short-term downside risks, but directional breakthroughs still require price confirmation. Macroeconomic data and regulatory dynamics may become the main catalysts for the market. In this context, trading strategies should remain flexible, avoiding one-sided bets, and closely monitoring macro data and signals from the options market to guard against tail risks.
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