Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9309732027 The global macroeconomic environment continues to recover, but inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are intertwined, prompting major central banks to accelerate their easing policies. Among them, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75% -5.00%. This is the first interest rate cut of the year, and the market expects an additional 50 basis points reduction before the end of 2025. This policy shift is seen as a significant positive for the cryptocurrency market (cryptocurrency circle), as interest rate cuts typically inject liquidity and stimulate investment in risky assets. However, the response of the cryptocurrency industry is often delayed and complex. This article will objectively analyze the potential impact of the 2025 interest rate cut on the cryptocurrency industry, and combine it with the current Bitcoin (BTC) market for analysis. The transmission impact of interest rate reduction mechanism on the cryptocurrency circle. The core of interest rate reduction lies in reducing borrowing costs and releasing market liquidity. According to historical data, interest rate downturns often benefit high-risk, high return assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Specifically in the cryptocurrency industry, interest rate cuts are transmitted through three pathways: firstly, liquidity spillover effects. After the Fed cut interest rates, the banking system has ample funds, and institutional investors tend to turn to high-yield assets. In the first half of 2025, BTC spot ETFs have accumulated inflows of over $50 billion, and interest rate cuts further amplify this trend. For example, a 0.25% interest rate cut could release trillions of dollars in liquidity, some of which could flow into the cryptocurrency market and drive a surge in trading volume. Historical data shows that after three rounds of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2019, BTC soared from $10000 to $28000, an increase of nearly 180%. In a similar environment by 2025, the total market value of the cryptocurrency industry is expected to climb from the current $2.5 trillion to $4 trillion. Secondly, there is an increase in risk appetite. The interest rate cut signals a soft landing for the economy, and investors' confidence is recovering, reducing their dependence on safe haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, and instead favoring "digital gold" such as BTC. However, the path of interest rate cuts in 2025 is moderate (expected to result in a cumulative decline of 75-100 basis points throughout the year), and in the short term, it may only provide moderate stimulus rather than explosive growth. The CoinDesk index (CD20) shows that after the announcement of the interest rate cut, BTC only rose slightly by 0.3%, while Ethereum (ETH) rose by 1.7%, reflecting the market's caution towards Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks. The weakening of the US dollar is favorable for cryptocurrency pricing. BTC is priced in US dollars, and interest rate cuts typically lead to a decline in the US dollar index (DXY may fall below 100), enhancing BTC's relative attractiveness. In 2025, if the US dollar continues to weaken, BTC prices may break through the $120000 mark, driving up altcoins such as SOL and XRP. Motley Fool analysis suggests that BTC, DOGE, and XRP will directly benefit, with a potential increase of 20% -50%. But we need to be wary of geopolitical risks, such as the trade friction between China and the United States. If combined with a rebound in inflation, the effect of interest rate cuts may be compromised. Overall, the impact of the 2025 interest rate cut on the cryptocurrency market is positive but non-linear. Short term (Q4 2025) may trigger volatility, while long-term (2026) will support a bull market. Crypto.com predicts that during the interest rate cut cycle, the average trading price of BTC can reach $128500, with an ROI of approximately 3.7%. However, regulatory uncertainty (such as the SEC's reform of cryptocurrency listings) and institutional selling risks cannot be ignored. Objective analysis of the current BTC market shows that as of September 18, 2025, the current price of BTC has remained stable at around $117000, with a 24-hour increase of 0.3%, and a decrease of 0.8% from the previous high of $118000. From the K-line chart, BTC rebounded from $108000 at the end of August, with a cumulative increase of 8.3%, benefiting from the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, but failed to break through the resistance level of $120000 after the announcement. Futures data shows that interest in opening positions has surged to $221.5 billion, while spot trading volume remains stable. However, ETF inflows have reversed, with a net outflow of approximately $500 million, reflecting institutions' wait-and-see attitude towards the Fed's "dove with eagle" tone. On a technical level, BTC has formed an upward wedge pattern, with daily RSI overbought (above 70) and the emergence of a dead cross signal on the MACD line, indicating short-term pullback risk. Support level of 116000 US dollars (20 day moving average), if it falls below, it may test 110000 US dollars; Resistance level of $118000, breaking through or heading straight towards $120000. According to the Investtech report, BTC broke through the resistance of $117756 on September 18th, but the midpoint is still within the trading range, with a target price below $99999. Fundamental positive support: Miners' selling pressure is reduced (hash rate rebounds by 5%), active addresses on the chain increase by 10%, but whales (holding over 10000 BTC) net sell 2% of their positions, showing divergence. Macro environment, BTC futures holdings have risen to historical highs after the Fed cut interest rates, But there has been no "circuit breaker" rise in the market, with 99Bitcoins reporting overall stability for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, and BNB approaching $1000. Objective evaluation: The current market is neutral and bullish, with high short-term volatility (the panic index VIX has risen to 20), making it suitable for band operations. Analysts predict that BTC may reach a peak of 140000-150000 US dollars within 45 days, Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.

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