By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)Crypto markets are a sea of red alongside a growing risk aversion in traditional markets, and Trump's tariffs are to blame. Late Friday, the president imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, provoking retaliatory measures that have reignited a trade war reminiscent of 2018.See all newslettersThe consensus on social media and among the analyst community is that this tariff-induced slide in the crypto market is temporary and that bitcoin (BTC) will quickly rebound. However, there are reasons to believe otherwise.Firstly, Trump has shattered the crypto market's belief that he is looking to pump markets and would use small tariffs merely as a negotiating tactic. In fact, he has threatened to increase tariffs if trading partners retaliate. Since Canada and Mexico responded with their own measures, the potential for further tariff hikes looms large.Geo Chen, a macro trader and author of the popular Substack-based newsletter, Fidenza Macro, shared his perspective in an email to subscribers: "My view is that they will remain in place for several months with the risk of increasing, as Canada has pledged to retaliate and China has initiated a lawsuit against the U.S. in the World Trade Organization. These responses could escalate the situation. The best we can hope for is a partial rollback of tariffs once negotiations conclude."Chen emphasized that the tariffs are driven by trade deficit concerns rather than the fentanyl crisis, as Trump likes to portray, adding that markets may take days or weeks to grasp this, leading to persistent volatility. Besides, the latest tariffs are on $1.3 trillion worth of goods that the U.S. imports from the three nations, which is seven times bigger in value than the first shot fired in 2018.All this makes the latest episode appear more destabilizing than back then, when the S&P 500 initially dropped 9% from its peak in March before quickly rebounding. In other words, the potential pain may be greater this time around, which poses a challenge for risk-on assets like BTC.As one crypto trader choosing to stay anonymous said: "Despite the talk of deals, this move doesn't feel temporary." Stay alert! Pepecoin (PEPE) HalvingBoba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgradeShentu Chain network upgradePectra upgradedelistingMSTRCANHIVEEXODHUTRDDTCLSKCOINSTO:CSSMLRXYZMARACSE: HODLRIOTCIFRBITFWULFBTDRNEO:DEFITSE:GLXYKULRTSLAdiscussingvotingvotehost a network reviewhostDigital Assets ForumGlobal Blockchain CongressOndo Summit 2025Solana APEXNFT ParisConsensus Hong KongSui Connect: Hong KongETHDenver 2025HederaCon 2025Crypto Expo EuropeBitcoin AliveNext Block ExpoDC Blockchain Summit 2025Solana APEXCrypto Horizons 2025Blockchain Forum 2025Sui BasecampFilecoin (FIL) Developer Summit Avalanche Summit LondonLitecoin Summit 2025By Shaurya Malwadouble topopening doorsSource: Farside InvestorsXRP, Dogecoin Plunge 25% as Crypto Liquidations Cross $2.2B on Tariffs Led DumpChance of Bitcoin Tanking to $75K Doubles as Trump's Tariffs Ignite Trade War, Derive's Onchain Options Market ShowsUSDe Stable Despite Trade War VolatilityDollar Soars, Stocks Fall as Trump Imposes Tariffs: Markets WrapBeijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With TrumpBank of England Expected to Cut Interest Rates Again as U.K. Economy Stagnates
According to TheBlock Aave founder Stani Kulechov said, "Tariffs will raise funds for the United States and increase domestic production, as well as for other countries to raise funds and increase their domestic production, making every country participate in the competition for domestic production. This is not an economic recession, but a restructuring of the entire global economy. For those who see uncertainty in stock market crashes during the transition period, cryptocurrencies will serve as a hedge, and for those who hope to reduce uncertainty in bond market crashes, DeFi returns will also serve as a hedge
According to TheBlock, analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein stated in a report to clients: "If tariffs mean a strengthening of the US dollar, rising inflation, and reduced prospects for short-term interest rate cuts, then this means a decrease in global liquidity for risk assets. Over the longer term, as governments take on higher debt and deficits, leading to further currency depreciation, Bitcoin has relative value to the US dollar, which is evident in Bitcoin's long-term composite history. However, in the short term, Bitcoin is associated with risk assets. Therefore, the sell-off of cryptocurrencies is not surprising Bernstein analysts believe that in the long run, the Trump administration sees cryptocurrency as strategically important for government governance and national finances, with the aim of controlling inflation through deficit reduction, cost cutting departments under Elon Musk's leadership, and increased energy production. Although foreign governments may retaliate against tariffs by selling US treasury bond, Bernstein expects that sovereign countries will hoard gold and bitcoin as economic buffers. The US will lead the transformation of supporting cryptocurrencies, and more countries may follow suit.
The OKX BTC/USD perpetual funding rate is currently -0.04%, and bears need to pay funding fees to bulls, indicating a high bearish sentiment in the market. AiCoin [PC - Home - Popular Rankings] has launched the "Fund Rate" ranking, which provides a list of rate arbitrage opportunities. Capital fees are an important mechanism for anchoring spot prices in perpetual contracts, used to balance long and short sentiment. When the funding rate is greater than 0, long positions pay funding fees to short positions; When the funding rate is less than 0, short sellers pay funding fees to long sellers.
BTC has risen, with a trading volume of $126.8 billion in the past 24 hours and a circulating market value of $1.89 trillion, representing a 3.52% increase in market value. Data for reference only
