Crypto Daybook Americas: Forex Markets Signal Bitcoin Upside Amid Tariff-On/Tariff-Off Trading

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)If you follow financial markets, you've probably come across the terms "risk-on" and "risk-off." Now we seem to be entering a new era of "tariffs on/tariffs off."See all newslettersIn a risk-on environment, growth-sensitive assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies tend to rise due to expectations of economic expansion or accommodative monetary policy. Conversely, risk-off situations reflects a lack of investor confidence, leading to sell-offs and a preference for safer assets.But this week, President Trump's tariffs announcement have single-handedly guided markets. Early Monday, bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to nearly $91,000 as Canada and Mexico retaliated against Trump's tariffs. That was "tariffs on" trading.Later, it rebounded above $100,000 after Trump paused the Mexico tariffs for the 30 days and announced the creation a sovereign wealth fund, which generated hopes of potential investments in BTC. That was "tariffs off."The bullish momentum ran out of steam early Tuesday as China retaliated against Trump's import tax, reviving "tariffs on" trading. BTC fell over 3% to $98,000, dragging altcoins lower. Nasdaq futures dropped over 0.5% and the dollar drew haven bids.Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will likely rebound should Trump announce an 11th-hour deal with China, just as he did with Mexico and Canada on Monday. Foreign-exchange market activity suggests that's likely. The AUD/CAD is down just 0.3% for the day, a sign traders don't expect a prolonged tariff war between the U.S. and China. (The Australian dollar is widely seen as a proxy for China)."A cross like AUD/CAD should trade sharply lower in this situation given Canada has dodged tariffs and China has not, but it is only 0.5% lower on the day. That signals markets are pricing in a good chance that the US and China will also strike a deal and delay tariffs," ING said in a note to clients.That said, you can never be sure of Trump. So, expect heightened volatility and stay alert!Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgradeShentu Chain network upgradedelistingLivestream linkLivestream linkMSTRCANHIVEEXODHUTIRENRDDTdiscussingvotingvotediscussinghost a network reviewhostGlobal Blockchain CongressOndo Summit 2025Solana APEXNFT ParisConsensus Hong KongSui Connect: Hong KongETHDenver 2025HederaCon 2025By Shaurya MalwaSource: Farside InvestorsEthereum Raises Gas Limits for First Time Since 2021, Boosting ETH AppealLending Protocol Aave Processes $200M in Liquidation Without Adding to Bad-Debt BurdenTRON, Movement Labs Deny ‘Token Swap’ Deal for World Liberty Financial InclusionYuan Extends Loss With China Proxies as US Trade War ReignitesStocks Erase Gains After China Retaliates Against U.SEuro Stays Weaker Amid Tariff Risks