Singapore's cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital announced today that last Friday's non farm payroll data (NFP) provided some breathing space for the stock and cryptocurrency markets, further strengthening market expectations for a May rate cut. Bitcoin remained stable around $86000 for most of Saturday, seemingly laying the foundation for a steady recovery this week. However, this momentum was interrupted during the low liquidity period on Sunday by the Bybit hacking incident, where hackers cashed out at least $300 million from a record breaking $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing BTC and ETH to once again test key support levels.
Due to hackers showing a willingness to cash out rather than taking on the risk of further losses (stolen assets have depreciated by 25%), holders of coins may sell early to avoid supply pressure from further selling by hackers, which could exacerbate today's price drop. In the past 24 hours, the demand for risk reversal of put options has further increased, reflecting the market's growing concerns about additional selling pressure.
Although $80000 remains a key support level for BTC in the near future, the upside space seems to be limited as the narrative of strategic Bitcoin reserves has been fully priced by the market. Recent option flows indicate that a more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter. Until a new narrative is found in the cryptocurrency market, the correlation between BTC and the stock market may further strengthen in the short term. At present, both of these risky assets are trading near recent lows, and with tariff risks still present, market volatility may increase before the release of key macroeconomic data in the United States - the Consumer Price Index (CPI, Wednesday) and Producer Price Index (PPI, Thursday)
