According to a report by Golden Ten, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for US tariffs in 2025 in a research report early this morning, and warned that the escalation of trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation, and employment. The bank currently expects the average tariff rate in the United States to increase by 15 percentage points by 2025, higher than the previous baseline of 10 percentage points. The main reason for the upward adjustment is that it is expected that the comprehensive "equivalent tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 will impose an average of 15% tariffs on all US trading partners, and the average actual impact of tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs has raised its core PCE inflation forecast for the United States by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% by the end of 2025, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will slow down to 1.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of an economic recession in the United States within 12 months to 35%, citing weak consumer and business sentiment, and indications that policymakers may be more willing to accept recent economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals. Due to the slowdown in actual income growth, the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, with emotional and policy risks exerting a greater drag on the economy than in recent years.
In addition, Goldman Sachs stated that it now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, September, and November.
