Analyst: Long term holders become key factor in suppressing BTC reversal

According to BlockBeats, on April 4th, on chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that during bull market corrections, BTC prices often hit STH-RPC multiple times, which is the average short-term holder turnover cost, currently at $93000; Since February this year, BTC has not experienced a decent rebound. From November 2024 to January 2025, STH's profit realization accounted for 56% of the total realized value in the market, while LTH accounted for 42%. At that time, everyone had ample profit margins and led the cash out behavior. During the rebound period from March 13th to March 25th, LTH's profit realization accounted for 70%, while STH only had 10%; This indicates that the cash out behavior at this time is mainly for long-term holders, and short-term holders no longer have much profit margin. From a data perspective, in history, whether it is a deep bear or bull market correction, it will form a temporary bottom after LTH gradually turns into a loss state, or even a bottom of a large cycle. Because there is nothing to sell (surrender), a bottom is formed. The cost base for long-term holders closest to the current price is around $81000, and this group has a size of approximately over 300000 BTC. That is to say, when the BTC price drops below $80000, these BTC held by LTH will enter a loss state (so this price also has a strong supporting effect). In addition, over time, when more short-term chips trapped at high positions passively become long-term chips, the same effect will be produced; Overall, it raises the cost base of LTH. In any case, until this' problem 'is effectively resolved, it will always be within the framework of' looking for rebound rather than reversal '.