As concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and ongoing trade frictions dissipated earlier this week, it can be seen as a positive week. On Friday, the US stock market performed relatively flat, and market participants continued to wait for more information about the tariff war. Looking ahead to next week, although the Federal Reserve has entered a period of silence and the domestic market is about to enter the May Day holiday, there are still many heavy agendas, including but not limited to non farm payroll data, US first quarter GDP data, PCE inflation data, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision... The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Monday 22:30, Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April in the United States
Tuesday 22:00, March JOLTs job vacancies and April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the United States
Wednesday 09:30, China's official manufacturing PMI for April
Wednesday 09:45, China's April Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone Q1 GDP Annual Rate Initial Value
Wednesday 20:15, ADP employment figures for April in the United States
Wednesday 20:30, initial quarterly rates of labor cost index, annualized quarterly rate of real GDP, quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditure, and annualized quarterly rate of core PCE price index for the first quarter of the United States
Wednesday 22:00, PCE price data for March, monthly rate of personal expenses for March, and monthly rate of signed home sales index for March in the United States
At 19:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in April in the United States
Thursday 21:45, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value
Friday 20:30, seasonally adjusted non farm payroll and April unemployment rate in the United States
The ADP employment report, also known as the 'small non farm payroll', will be released next Wednesday, along with the latest PCE inflation and consumption data. However, the real focus will be on the non farm payroll report scheduled to be released next Friday, and there is currently intense speculation about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Non farm employment growth is expected to slow down from 228000 in March to 130000 in April, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%. The average salary in April may increase by 0.3% month on month. For the US dollar, a series of worrying data are almost certainly negative, but for the US stock market, if interest rate cuts are hoped to improve and market sentiment is not overshadowed by recession concerns, the stock market may rise.
