Swap contracts tend to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, as traders reduce their bets on the magnitude of interest rate cuts by major central banks this year

According to BlockBeats, on May 12th, with the important consensus reached in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States triggering a new round of rebound, the trading situation of the US stock market now seems as if Trump's "Liberation Day" shock has never occurred. Futures show that the S&P 500 index (SPX) is expected to rise nearly 4% at opening, which could push the index significantly above its level on April 2nd. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is expected to re-enter a bull market. Traders have also reduced their bets on the magnitude of interest rate cuts by major central banks this year. The swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve meeting now lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Last week, these contracts hinted that the Federal Reserve would have policy changes as early as July. However, some investors are concerned about the lack of details in the agreement announced on Monday and the risk of conflict erupting again. Three months is not sufficient time for negotiating and resolving complex trade disputes. And it is currently unclear what the goal will be at the end of the easing period. When asked how to avoid further tariff increases after the 90 day suspension period ends, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that it is possible to extend it further. (Golden Ten)