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1、 Key parameters of non-agricultural data
1. Non farm employment
The number of newly added jobs exceeds expectations: the economy is strong, which is bearish for Bitcoin (with rising expectations of interest rate hikes);
The number of newly added jobs is lower than expected: the economy is weak, which is favorable for Bitcoin (the expectation of interest rate cuts is heating up).
2. Unemployment rate
The decline in unemployment rate reflects a tight labor market, which may strengthen expectations of interest rate hikes and be negative for Bitcoin;
Rising unemployment rate: implying economic pressure or weakening expectations of interest rate hikes, bullish for Bitcoin.
3. Average hourly wage growth rate
Salary growth exceeds expectations: pushing up inflationary pressure, increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, bearish for Bitcoin;
Salary growth slows down: inflationary pressures ease, expectations of interest rate hikes cool down, bullish for Bitcoin.
2、 The impact logic of Bitcoin
1. Expectations for Federal Reserve Policy
Non farm payroll data directly affects the market's judgment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (interest rate hikes/cuts).
Strong data → Rising interest rate expectations → US dollar strengthening → Bitcoin under pressure (due to being priced in US dollars and increasing opportunity costs);
Weak data → Rising expectations of interest rate cuts → Weakening of the US dollar → Support for Bitcoin (increased risk aversion or speculative demand).
2. Market sentiment transmission
The short-term fluctuations before and after the release of data are severe, and we need to be alert to the phenomenon of "buying expectations, selling facts" (if the data meets expectations, there may be reverse fluctuations).
Note: Non farm data has a short-term impact, while the long-term trend of Bitcoin still depends on macroeconomic cycles, regulatory policies, and the supply and demand of the cryptocurrency market itself.
From a technical perspective
BTC closed negative last week, but closed positive
In the sideways trend of 103000-6000 for a week, it broke below the level of around 100000 last night, and the daily MACD has been at a dead cross downward. In theory, it should have fallen back long ago, probably to around 95000
ETH weekly closing three needles
The pressure is enormous, and there is also a demand for a pullback in the morning star of the monthly closing line. The four hour dead cross of the daily line is downward, and a pullback is necessary. After falling below 2300, it will reach 2100
So, how do we proceed next?
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
