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The Iran Israel conflict has had multiple impacts on financial markets and Bitcoin, as follows:
The impact on financial markets
Stock market volatility: The local Israeli stock market suffered a heavy blow, with its benchmark index TA-35 falling more than 5% at one point. For global stock markets, if the conflict does not escalate, the impact is relatively limited, but if the conflict escalates, it may trigger a wave of global stock market selling. After the Israeli military confirmed the attack on targets related to Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, the collective plunge of cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin may also have a chain reaction on other financial markets such as the stock market.
• Rising oil prices: Iran is an important oil producing region, and the Iran Israel conflict may damage the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, reduce the possibility of Saudi Arabia increasing production, and thus push up oil prices. After the conflict broke out, crude oil and Brent crude oil in New York rose by over 4% at one point
Funds flow to safe haven assets: Investors' risk appetite has decreased, and funds flow to traditional safe haven assets such as gold, US dollars, and US Treasury bonds. For example, after the outbreak of the Palestinian Israeli conflict, the gold price rose by more than 1%, the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell, and the bond price rose.
The impact of Bitcoin
Short term price fluctuations: The impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict on Bitcoin prices is more complex, and it is not necessarily an upward trend like traditional safe haven assets after a conflict occurs. After the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Bitcoin experienced a decline due to market concerns about the spread of the conflict leading to a surge in oil prices, which in turn caused the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which is unfavorable for assets such as Bitcoin. However, some argue that if the conflict continues to escalate and trigger global financial turmoil, the safe haven nature of Bitcoin as a "digital gold" may become prominent, attracting capital inflows and driving up prices.
The long-term trend is still dominated by macro factors: In the long run, the trend of Bitcoin is more influenced by macro liquidity, regulatory policies, and internal events in the cryptocurrency industry. For example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, although Bitcoin rose in the short term due to risk aversion speculation, it entered a downward trend in the later period due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and currency circle thunder.
From a technical perspective analysis
BTC closed last week, surged to the top twice, and reached its peak again
In the sideways trend at 11w, a four hour double top formed below 109000 to 103000, and the daily MACD has been consistently at a dead cross downwards. In theory, it would have fallen earlier, and the break at 10w would have been around 95000
ETH rose a wave around 2880 after the weekly closing line and began to fall back. The monthly closing line was suppressed by the mid track, and the daily four hour dead cross did not successfully cross downwards without a golden cross. It is necessary to fall back. If 2400 cannot be held, it will arrive at 2100.
So, how do we proceed next?
Teacher Zhao Yun, who has 9 years of practical trading experience in the cryptocurrency industry, will provide a detailed breakdown for everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast room to check in!
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
