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Triple Engine: Boosting Fragile Market Confidence
The macro cloud is beginning to dissipate, and the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve has issued a dovish signal, implying that more data confirmation is needed before deciding on policy direction. Market expectations for a rate cut in July have suddenly risen. Risk assets regain a breathing space.
The geopolitical smoke is temporarily extinguished. Middle Eastern parties have reached a preliminary peace agreement, which has led to the return of safe haven funds such as gold and US bonds, and a tentative injection into the cryptocurrency market.
A deeper force comes from regulatory ice breaking. The US Senate is advancing the GENIUS stablecoin bill, the EU MiCA framework has been revised, and the global regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clearer. The policy has shifted from iron fisted suppression to rule building, injecting certainty into the industry.
Texas has embraced Bitcoin through legislation and allocated $10 million to establish a state-level Bitcoin reserve, becoming the first US state government to bet on cryptocurrency with public funds. The institutionalization process is quietly accelerating, and on chain data shows that long-term funds are flowing back into Bitcoin holdings. The surface calmness cannot conceal the deep crisis. Despite the price rebound, the demand for spot goods remains weak, and the willingness of new investors to enter the market is sluggish. $92000 is considered by analysts as a key cost support level on the chain, and once it falls below, it may trigger a chain sell-off towards $81000.
The leverage frenzy in the derivatives market is receding. CryptoQuant data shows that the activity of derivative trading has significantly decreased, and some large players (whales) have shown signs of reducing their positions. This suppresses the short-term breakthrough of key resistance for Bitcoin. Volatility remains the sword hanging from the top. On June 25th, Bitcoin's intraday volatility remained at 1.5%, fluctuating between $104800 and $106790. The market is like a startled bird, any policy variables or geopolitical black swan may restart the plummeting valve
There is a glimmer of hope in the technical aspect. Bitcoin has broken through the daily downward structure, and if it can maintain the resistance level of $107800, the Fibonacci expansion target will point to the range of $109770 to $114896. Analyst Dan Gambardello even asserts that Bitcoin is still expected to hit $160000, with the worst-case scenario being a pullback to $95000 before accumulating strength to make a comeback. The long-term narrative remains unchanged. The supply contraction effect of halving in 2024 is still being released, and the trend of enterprise allocation of Bitcoin is deepening - MicroStrategy's holdings have a floating profit of over $23 billion, and asset management giants such as BlackRock continue to increase ETFs. Morgan Stanley predicts that enterprise allocation of Bitcoin will become mainstream in the second half of 2025. The war actually verified the extreme value of Bitcoin. Gaza uses Bitcoin mining machines to maintain battlefield communication, while Ukraine raises $127 million in aid through cryptocurrency. When traditional financial infrastructure collapses, encryption technology reveals its tenacious resilience as the "lifeline of wartime finance".
CME Bitcoin futures surged to a late closing offensive of $108000, seemingly strong, but the market is still walking on a tightrope. Although institutional funds are flowing back, retail demand is weakening like a ebb tide; The dawn of peace in the Middle East is emerging, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is still undecided. The cost line of $92000 has become a life and death barrier, and breaking below it may trigger a domino like selling wave. At this moment, in front of all the traders' screens, there is only one burning question: is this rebound, which was bought with blood, the beginning of Nirvana or the last fireworks before the end?
Operation suggestion:
BTC 107300 long. First target: 108300. Second target: 109350
ETH 2470 long first target to see 2530 second target to see 2580
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
