Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513
Violent pull-up tears apart the bearish defense line:
Since June 23rd, ETH has experienced a rocket like surge, with a daily increase of 11.28%, reaching a high of 2519, the largest increase since May 2025. This raid resulted in a $203 million liquidation of cryptocurrency contracts across the entire network, with ETH bears suffering a $106 million bloodbath, accounting for 52% of the total liquidation amount. The fall of the bearish defense line at the key support level of 2400 triggered a chain of liquidation, and the leveraged market instantly turned into a "meat grinder". 4 billion ETF ammunition injection, BlackRock sold 160 million in a single day.
The core driving force behind the surge comes from the entry of institutional funds for nuclear weapons:
Ethereum ETF fund flood breaks through barriers: cumulative net inflow exceeds $4.01 billion, and flow rate skyrockets by 379% - the latest $1 billion was earned in just 15 days, with a daily average of $66.67 million.
BlackRock Blitzkrieg: With a ultra-low management fee of 0.25%, its ETF (ETHA) harvested $160 million in chips in a single day, with a total inflow of $5.31 billion, accounting for 132.4% of the market's net inflow.
Grayscale collapse: High rates (2.50%) resulted in a net outflow of $4.28 billion from ETHE, creating a "long short liquidity scissors gap".
Triple alarm sounded on the technical front
Despite the frenzy of funding, technical indicators conceal hidden dangers:
1. "Death resistance" suppression: ETH forms a triple top form at 2650, and multiple attempts to climb up have failed. If it cannot break through, it will trigger selling pressure.
2. Overheated valuation: The MVRV ratio has risen to 19.25%, indicating that a large number of holders have substantial floating profits and strong profit taking motives; The NVT ratio soared to 550, indicating that the market value growth rate far exceeded the actual demand on the chain.
3. Weird operation by giant whales: A mysterious wallet (0xcB92) established a $122 million short position against the trend. Previously, it made a profit of over $20 million by accurately targeting local high and low points. This high confidence short selling has triggered market vigilance. Bull market restart or bull graveyard?
Market divergence is heating up:
Long faith: The inflow of institutional ETFs and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts are heating up (with a sudden increase in probability in September), coupled with the favorable impact of the GENIUS Act on the Ethereum blockchain financial ecosystem, which may push ETH to hit $3000.
Short weight: The negative capital rate in the derivatives market indicates a surge in retail hedging demand; If ETH falls below the 2200 support, it may trigger a death spiral of "decline, liquidation, and accelerated decline".
Key battle signal: The 13F file in mid July will disclose the actual ETH holdings of institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity. If the institutional allocation ratio exceeds 33% (currently less than 30%), the bull market nuclear bomb may be officially launched; On the contrary, this 11% surge could become a liquidity trap.
In this trillion dollar capital game, can the blood of bears really water the flower of a bull market? The answer is already in the countdown.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 107000 long. First target: 108300. Second target: 109350
ETH 2430 long first target to see 2480 second target to see 2550
Join the language community communication group to obtain more services
1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting)
2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning
3. Construction and improvement of trading system-
4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land!
Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance.
Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513
DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032
Every day, there are teachers in the group who arrange precise positioning to answer questions and provide free guidance
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
