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Detailed analysis of ETH's recent situation and future trends in the live broadcast room, implementing long-term order layout!
Ethereum is currently oscillating around $2930, and the market is caught in a fierce game of "institutional buying frenzy" and "retail investors' fear of heights". Behind this price position is a complex pattern of $3500 breaking expectations and the risk of collapse coexisting, which requires multidimensional analysis of its future direction.
Institutional frenzy: dual support of funds and confidence
The historic fundraising of ETFs has become the core driving force. In July, the daily inflow of the US spot Ethereum ETF reached $383 million, and the monthly total inflow exceeded $890 million. The holdings of giants such as BlackRock have accounted for 1.5% of ETH circulation, significantly exacerbating the market liquidity tightening.
The trend of large-scale allocation by listed companies is further strengthened. SharpLink Gaming and five other Nasdaq companies recently added ETH to their financial reserves, with a total size exceeding $1 billion. SharpLink added 21400 ETH (approximately $64.26 million) in a single day, highlighting the shift towards enterprise level asset allocation.
The activity of the derivatives market has skyrocketed simultaneously. CME Ethereum futures open contracts rose to $3.27 billion, reaching a new high since February, demonstrating professional investors' recognition of ETH's medium to long-term value.
Retail investors' fear of heights: leverage risk and hidden dangers of on chain differentiation
The high leverage planted the selling fuse. ETH's open contracts reached a historical peak of $22.6 billion, while the futures premium rate was only 5% (neutral to short), indicating that institutions have doubts about short-term sustainability. Historical data shows that nearly 81% of leverage ratios will experience a pullback of more than 10% after a sudden increase. If they fall below $2900, it may trigger a multi order chain of liquidation.
On chain activities show contradictions among retail investors: new addresses increased by 6.2%, but active addresses decreased by 3.3%, and zero balance addresses decreased by 8.54%. This reflects that new retail investors enter the market for short-term trading, while long-term user participation decreases, which can easily trigger stampede once prices fluctuate.
Divergence between Whales and Retail Investors: In the past month, addresses holding over 10000 ETH decreased by 0.58%, while retail investors' holdings increased by 1.18%. If the giant whale continues to take profits, individual investors may find it difficult to independently support the upward trend.
$3500 in sight? Opportunity for resonance between technology and capital flow
The key breakthrough form has been completed. ETH has stabilized in the resistance conversion support zone of $2880-2900 and formed a "head, shoulder, and bottom" structure. The short-term target is set at $3040-3120, and after breaking through, it can reach $4400 in the medium term.
The resistance on the chain is weak. According to IntoTheBlock data, there are no intense selling pressure chips within the $3100-3500 range. If institutional buying continues, it may quickly rise to the technical target level.
The catalyst for the knockoff season is approaching. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the 0.05 key level. In similar historical periods, if it maintains its strength within 72 hours, it will trigger the Altsea (altcoin season), leading ETH to rise.
On the eve of a collapse? Short term risk points and warning lines
Clearing the hidden gunpowder barrel. Above $2900, there is a gathering of $655 million in short clearing orders, and $2700 is ambushing $1.452 billion in long clearing orders. If the price fluctuation exceeds 5%, it may trigger a $2 billion chain liquidation.
The foundation is under pressure to reduce its holdings. The Ethereum Foundation has transferred a total of $52.82 million in ETH in the past three months, with the latest single sale of 1000 ETH (approximately $2.51 million). Although there are still 196000 pieces (495 million US dollars) in the position, caution signals continue to be released.
Key observation points for directional decision-making
Currently, ETH is at a critical point of "breakthrough acceleration" and "leverage collapse", and investors need to closely monitor two major signals:
Institutional ETF weekly inflow: If it exceeds $100 million for three consecutive days, it will strengthen buying support;
$2900 defense: If the daily line closes below this, it may retrace to $2700 support.
Overall, the dominance of institutional funds makes ETH more inclined to hit $3500 in the short term, but high leverage by retail investors and selling pressure from foundations may trigger severe volatility. It is recommended that investors adopt a strategy of "breakthrough chasing+strict stop loss" and divide their positions around 2930. If the price falls below 2880 US dollars, they should leave the market to avoid risks
Operation suggestion:
BTC 116500 long. First target: 117500. Second target: 118350;
ETH 2930 long, first target at 2980, second target at 3030.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
