Singapore's cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital has issued a statement stating that the Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate unchanged but maintains a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation expectations remain high in the near future and tariffs are the main upward risk. Officials reiterated that they will adopt a wait-and-see attitude and wait for a clearer path of inflation. Although some argue that a weak labor market will prompt policy shifts, the US economy remains strong with robust employment and consumption data. The crude oil market has shown a lukewarm response to geopolitical news, despite ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, with oil prices maintaining narrow fluctuations and implied volatility falling from high levels. The Trump administration has the motivation to push for a deal with Iran before the election to avoid rising oil prices pushing up inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions have escalated, and before the end of the EU tariff suspension on July 9th, the United States had only reached an agreement with one of its 195 potential trading partners. Key time points include: the possibility of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the European Union on the United States on July 14th, the end of the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States on August 12th, and the expiration of tariff exemptions for Chinese goods on August 31st. These events may trigger market volatility, but stable results are still expected in the US China trade negotiations. The cryptocurrency market has entered a seasonal downturn, with BTC's short-term implied volatility falling below 40%, and put option premiums reflecting market caution. The expiration of month end options, rebalancing of capital flows, and systematic deleveraging have dominated the recent price trend.
