Daniel von Ahlen and Adrea Cicione of TS Lombard wrote that the additional returns required for investors to hold longer-term US bonds, namely term premiums, have not changed much recently. This stability indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4%, as "if the risk premium is not substantially compressed, there is limited room for further decline in yields." They say that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields.
