Over the past week, the market focus has mainly been on the United States, with various indices hitting historic highs almost daily, showing extreme frenzy. It is worth noting that asset management companies are increasingly bullish on the US stock market, and market sentiment may be overly excited. This may lead to excessive concentration of positions, and once negative news emerges, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9th, market volatility may intensify. Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely monitor the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the latest statements from the FOMC committee, and the latest developments in Trump's tariff negotiations. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Tuesday 23:00, June New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday at 09:30, China's June CPI annual rate;
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th in the United States;
Thursday 21:00, 2025 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Moses Lem delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy;
On Friday at 02:30, the 2027 FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.
After the release of a significantly better than expected non farm payroll report this week, US data will enter a flat period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is only 4%, and it will not be fully priced before October. Investors are paying attention to the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index next Tuesday and the initial jobless claims data next Thursday, in search of the latest clues in the labor market.
