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The cryptocurrency market is shrouded in dark clouds, with Bitcoin plummeting rapidly in the past 24 hours, breaking through the $117000 mark and experiencing a daily decline of 1.8%, triggering market panic. This sudden wave of selling is driven by multiple factors, and investors cannot help but ask: when will the decline end? When will the $120000 mark be recovered?
Selling Tide: Long term Holders' Cash Out and Pressure from the 'August Curse'
On chain data is showing a red light - the ratio of the "Coin Age Destruction" (CDD) indicator, which measures the behavior of long-term holders, has soared to 0.25, reaching a rare high in nearly a decade, comparable to the level before the deep market pullback in 2014 and 2019. This signal points directly to the large-scale awakening and transfer of "dormant old coins", indicating that early investors are taking advantage of high prices to accelerate cash out and exit. What is even more worrying is the historical pattern: Bitcoin has always performed poorly in August, with a historical median return rate as low as -8.3%, and has plummeted for three consecutive years in that month (-14% in 2022, -11.2% in 2023, and -8.73% in 2024). With only one week left until August, the 'curse effect' has intensified market tension.
Multi head defense line: technical form and institutional fund construction support
Despite intense selling pressure, the market is not entirely hopeless. Technically, Bitcoin is currently in a "symmetrical triangle" or "bull market flag" consolidation structure, with lower support holding at $116000 and upper resistance suppressed in the range of $119000 to $120000. If we can break through this resistance band with a large volume, technical theory suggests that the price is expected to hit $123000 or even $130000. The key driving force behind this potential comes from institutional funds: Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to "suck in money", recording a net inflow of $5.2 billion in July alone, forming strong buying momentum to take on selling chips from long-term holders. Under the intense confrontation between long and short positions, the market has entered a period of silent turnover.
Eye of the Storm: August becomes a critical window for long short battle
As August approaches, the market stands at a crossroads. If the inflow of ETF funds does not decrease and Bitcoin can withstand seasonal selling pressure, it is expected to regain its upward momentum after the consolidation is over. The previously predicted target of $120000 by Standard Chartered Bank analysts has been deemed "too conservative", and the year-end outlook of $200000 remains unchanged; Jan3 CEO Samson Mow boldly predicted that he could see $500000 to $1 million within a year. However, in the short term, if the CDD indicator continues to rise or ETF inflows slow down, prices may further decline to test support strength.
The battle between long and short positions has reached a white hot stage: on one hand, there is the historical shadow of long-term holders cashing out and the "August Curse", and on the other hand, ETF funds are bottoming out and technical forms are ready to take off. Can Bitcoin build a defensive line around $117000 and break the 'downward curse' in August? The market game in the next two weeks will determine whether it will regain its offensive and challenge $120000, or fall into a deeper pullback quagmire
Operation suggestion:
BTC 117500 long, first target 118500, second target 120500;
ETH 3650 long, first target at 3700, second target at 3765.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.