[Polymarket Predicts 55% Probability of Bitcoin Falling Below $80,000 in November] After the sharp market drop on the afternoon of November 21, Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 in November has risen to 55%, while the probability of falling below $75,000 has risen to 21%.

[Nonfarm Payroll Data Intensifies Policy Divergence, BTC Drops Short-Term to Around $85,000] On November 21, the U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 119,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, exceeding the expected 52,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, marking a four-year high. This delayed employment report has become a critical data point ahead of the December FOMC meeting, as its lagging and contradictory nature deepens policy divergence. Market expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped to less than 40%. On the macroeconomic level, while nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate indicates conflicting labor market signals, complicating policy interpretation and increasing demand for safe-haven assets in a high-interest-rate environment. In the crypto market, BTC faced resistance at the $93,000 level and dropped short-term to around $85,000. If it fails to hold above $86,800, it may test $80,200. Bitunix analysts recommend monitoring labor market revision data, Federal Reserve rate cut divergences, and BTC's technical structure performance, as these factors will influence market trends in the coming week.

[Bitmine's Ethereum Holdings Show a Floating Loss of 31.87%, Amounting to $4.531 Billion] As of November 21, Bitmine holds 3.56 million ETH, with an average purchase price of $4,009. The floating loss ratio is 31.87%, and the floating loss amounts to $4.531 billion.

[BTC Drops Briefly, Long Whale Positions Show Significant Unrealized Losses, 29 New Large Addresses Open Long Positions] On November 21, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, BTC briefly dropped to $81,000. The on-chain movements of long whales are as follows: 1. 'CZ Counterparty' Whale: Partial liquidation of ETH and XRP long positions, with a loss of $7.3 million. The account shows an unrealized loss of $37.1 million, with a total position size of approximately $220 million, making it the largest ETH and XRP long position on Hyperliquid. 2. 'Maji': After four liquidations of ETH long positions, reopened a 25x ETH long position at $16,000. 3. 'Longing a Basket of Altcoins' Whale: Significant losses on 20 altcoins except ASTER and STRK, with a total position size of approximately $24.07 million. 4. 'Precisely Longing ZEC' Whale: Unrealized profits turned into a $900,000 loss, with a position size of approximately $10.53 million, ranking second among ZEC long positions on Hyperliquid. 5. 'Suspected XPL Insider' Whale: Three liquidations of BTC long positions, with a loss of $7.48 million and a position size of approximately $31 million. 6. 'Calm Position King': Ten liquidations of ETH, SOL, UNI, and HYPE long positions, with a loss of $12.92 million, leaving only $5.2 million in positions. 7. Largest BTC Long Position on Hyperliquid: Unrealized loss of $18.14 million on BTC long positions, with an additional $10 million added in the past hour, bringing the total position size to approximately $117 million. Additionally, since 15:30 (UTC+8), 35 new BTC long addresses with positions exceeding $1 million have been added on Hyperliquid, 29 of which are newly opened long positions.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11 on Monday — deep within “extreme fear” territory and its lowest reading since late 2022.