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[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Says Closely Monitoring Credit Conditions] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is paying very close attention to credit conditions. The currently observed rise in default rates does not indicate broader credit issues.
[Powell Says No Significant Deterioration in Economic Sectors] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that no significant deterioration has been observed across economic sectors, and the overall economic situation is good. He believes the actions taken by the Federal Reserve so far this year have been appropriate.
[Powell Says the Process of Renominating the Fed Chair Will Be Completed in a Timely Manner] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the process of renominating the Fed Chair will be completed in a timely manner.
[Powell Says Missing Economic Data May Affect Rate Adjustment Decisions] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that missing economic data could be a reason to pause rate adjustments. In the absence of sufficient data, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a more cautious approach. He also mentioned that a government shutdown could impact the December meeting.
Though acknowledging growing weakness in the labor market, Powell said a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion."
[Powell Says Federal Reserve Interest Rates Are Now in Neutral Range] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are now within the range of many neutral rate estimates. Some committee members believe action should be paused, while others support continuing rate cuts. Powell pointed out that the labor market is generally a better indicator than spending, but appears more pessimistic under current circumstances. An increasing number of members believe the Federal Reserve may need to wait for a cycle before taking further action.
[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Missing Economic Data May Lead to Pausing Rate Adjustments] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that missing economic data could be a reason to pause rate adjustments. In the absence of sufficient data, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a more cautious approach. He noted that a government shutdown could impact the December meeting.
[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Difficult to Gain Detailed Understanding of Economy During Government Shutdown] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that during a government shutdown, the Fed finds it challenging to gain a very detailed understanding of the economy. Currently, the Fed is using PriceStats and Adobe data to assist in monitoring inflation, but Powell emphasized that private sector data cannot replace government statistics.
[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Says Inflation Rate Near Target After Removing Tariffs] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the inflation rate, after removing tariffs, is not far from the 2% target.
[CME Data Shows Probability of Fed Rate Cut in December Drops to 71%] On October 30, CME FedWatch data indicated that traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the expected probability of a rate cut at 71%, down from the previous 90%.
[Analyst Says Powell's Remarks Aim to Restore Policy Flexibility] Analyst Joseph Richter pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion, which has led to a bear flattening of the yield curve. He believes the market has overreacted. Although the Fed may not take rate-cutting actions at every meeting (despite analysts still expecting rate cuts to be possible), Powell's remarks seem intended to regain flexibility in policy options. The market may interpret this as a hawkish signal, but its actual impact remains uncertain.
[Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Rises by 9 Basis Points, Rate Cut Expectations Questioned] The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 9 basis points, raising doubts in the market about the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
[Powell Says Monetary Market Pressure Requires Adjustment to Balance Sheet Operations] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that monetary market pressure demands immediate adjustment to balance sheet operations. December will enter the next phase of the balance sheet, and it will remain stable in the short term. He noted that clear signs have emerged indicating the need to halt quantitative tightening. The reinvestment strategy will bring the weighted average maturity closer to the outstanding securities stock.
[Powell: No Zero-Risk Policy Path, Risk Balance Has Shifted] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that there is currently no zero-risk policy path, emphasizing that the risk balance has shifted. He stated that the Fed's rate-cut measures are an important step toward a more neutral policy stance. This statement reflects the Fed's cautious approach in monetary policy adjustments and also indicates its attention to changes in the economic environment.
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[Powell: Tariff Impact on Inflation Expected to Be Short-Term] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that under a reasonable baseline scenario, the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation is expected to be temporary. This statement reflects the Federal Reserve's assessment of the influence of trade policies in the current economic environment, while emphasizing the limited persistence of tariffs on price pressures.
[Analyst Says Data Shortage May Impact Fed's December Rate Cut Plan] Inflation Insights analyst Omair Sharif stated that the U.S. government shutdown leading to a lack of official economic data could hinder the Federal Reserve's plan to cut rates for the third consecutive time at its December meeting. If official data reflecting October and November economic activity is unavailable by the December 10 meeting, Fed officials may find it difficult to reach a consensus on rate cuts, especially considering the internal disagreements shown in the September dot plot.
[Powell Says December Rate Cut Not Yet Certain] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that another rate cut in December is far from certain, with significant disagreements over policy advancement during the meeting.
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