Singapore based cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital has issued a statement stating that the conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its sixth day, with ongoing missile exchanges and dim prospects for a diplomatic resolution. G7 leaders have repeatedly called on Iran to return to nuclear negotiations with the United States, and the scheduled talks for this Sunday may be difficult to hold. The market is concerned about the restructuring of power structures in the Middle East and the impact of agency games between the United States, Russia, and China. The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point, and if Iran is forced into a corner, it may block this global crude oil transportation route, triggering supply shocks and inflation risks. President Trump has strongly demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender", and the market generally expects Iran to partially or fully surrender, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting tonight is facing a complex situation. The market is currently pricing two interest rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, but QCP Asia expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious tone in its Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP), which may imply only one interest rate cut in 2025, in contrast to market expectations. If the Federal Reserve makes such an adjustment, it may put pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin and a wider range of digital assets, due to a decrease in liquidity expectations.
