Coinbase： Market sentiment indicates the beginning of a new "crypto winter", but remains optimistic about the second half of the year

Coinbase stated in its latest report that due to the implementation of global tariffs and the potential for further escalation, some extreme negative emotions have emerged, which may indicate the beginning of a new "crypto winter". At the same time, although venture capital funding for cryptocurrencies increased in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, it is still 50% -60% lower than the peak level of the 2021-2022 cycle. This greatly limits the entry of new capital into the cryptocurrency ecosystem, especially in the field of altcoins. In the context of poor stock market performance, even with some unique favorable factors brought by the regulatory environment, the road to recovery in the cryptocurrency market is still full of challenges. The interaction of these factors paints a difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset field, which may require continued caution in the short term (perhaps the next 4-6 weeks). However, Coinbase also believes that investors need to adopt a tactical approach to the market, as Coinbase expects this process to be quite rapid when market sentiment ultimately resets, and is optimistic about the market in the second half of 2025. In addition, the report points out that recently, both Bitcoin (BTC) and COIN50 index have fallen below the 200 day moving average (200DMA), which may indicate that the cryptocurrency market is about to enter a bear market cycle.