According to BlockBeats, on April 16th, Coinbase Research released a research report stating that both Bitcoin and COIN50 indices have fallen below their respective 200 day moving averages, indicating that the market may be in the early stages of a long-term downward trend. This is consistent with the trend of declining total market value and shrinking venture capital, both of which are important features of the possible arrival of the 'cryptocurrency winter'. The report points out that many signs may indicate that extreme negative emotions have emerged with the implementation of global tariffs and the possibility of further escalation, and a new 'crypto winter' may be beginning. At the same time, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 has rebounded compared to the previous quarter, but still decreased by 50-60% from the peak of the 2021-2022 cycle. This greatly limits the entry of new capital into the ecosystem, especially in the area of altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the uncertainty of the broader macroeconomic environment, where traditional risk assets face sustained resistance due to fiscal tightening and tariff policies, leading to paralysis in investment decisions. With the poor performance of the stock market, even with some unique favorable factors in the regulatory environment, the path to cryptocurrency recovery is still full of challenges. The interaction of these factors makes the cyclical outlook in the field of digital assets difficult, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also suggests that investors need to adopt tactical market strategies and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
