The European Central Bank may remain inactive, and Lagarde may reiterate the risk of downward growth

According to a report by Golden Finance, the European Central Bank may choose to temporarily postpone interest rate cuts in response to the economic risks posed by Trump's tariffs. In the final decision before entering the seven week summer break, policymakers may maintain the 2% interest rate unchanged on Thursday until the tariffs are truly implemented and their impact can be more accurately assessed. But policy makers are well aware that risks are lurking: in addition to tariff concerns, the strengthening of the euro is suppressing the price outlook and further squeezing exporters, while France's public finance problems may brew a new political crisis. In this context, the European Central Bank may acknowledge an increased possibility of a September interest rate cut internally. Morgan Stanley economists said that based on this, President Lagarde may reiterate in her statement on Thursday that growth risks are "trending downwards". We expect the wording of the committee after the meeting on July 24th to be similar to that expressed in June, reserving the possibility of further interest rate cuts but not making any commitments