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Bitcoin's long short battle in the geopolitical game
$117000: The Technical Significance of the Long Short Life Line
On August 15th, Bitcoin fell three times to the key support level of $117000 within 8 hours, hitting a low of $116750 and plummeting by more than $7000 from the previous day's high of $124500, triggering a $1.032 billion liquidation across the entire network and causing 225000 traders to liquidate their positions.
- Technical display:
Bollinger Bands lose mid track support: The daily candlestick falls below the $117000 mid track support. If the weekly chart cannot recover from this level, the downward target will point to $113800 (Golden Ratio 0.786);
Clearing bomb hanging high: According to analysis by cryptocurrency experts, if it falls below $116300, it may trigger a programmed sell-off and trigger a chain reaction. This price line is not only a technical support, but also a betting chip for the market on the outcome of the Russia Ukraine nuclear talks.
Countdown to Nuclear Talks: BTC Destiny in Three Scenarios
On the early morning of August 16th Beijing time, Trump and Putin held high-risk negotiations in Alaska, focusing on the ceasefire and nuclear agreement in Ukraine. The market predicts three possible paths:
- Peace agreement reached (positive turning negative)
If a ceasefire plan of "land exchange" is reached, the decline in energy prices will alleviate inflation and weaken the demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven. Historical data shows that when Russia and Ukraine went to war in 2022, BTC first plummeted by 8%, but later rebounded by 27% due to the influx of safe haven funds. But if it lands peacefully this time, ETF funds may shift towards traditional assets, and BTC may lose support at 117000.
- Negotiation breakdown (short, short, long)
The escalation of conflicts will repeat the 2022 pattern: panic selling triggers flash crashes (key threshold of $116300), but then rebounds due to geopolitical risk premiums. At this point, $117000 will become the starting point for bearish slaughter, and after liquidating leveraged long positions, it will quickly reverse.
Fuzzy protocol (oscillation strangulation)
If only a fragile ceasefire is reached, BTC will be constrained by macro data and cryptocurrency internal factors. The flow of ETF funds (last week ETH earned 3 billion vs BTC only 560 million) and inflationary pressure (US PPI hit a 3-year high) are the dominant forces, and the $117000 region may become a "meat grinder battlefield" for long and short positions.
Market Undercurrent: Whale Withdrawal and Political Game
Whale Sell Signal: On chain monitoring shows that long-term holders have reduced their holdings of 300000 BTC in the past 24 hours, forming a hedge with institutions such as BlackRock increasing their holdings by 18000 BTC, highlighting capital differences;
Political chip game: The Trump administration is pushing for the "Bitcoin superpower" strategy (expanding the national treasury's storage of BTC) while threatening to impact market risk appetite with a 200% semiconductor tariff, amplifying policy contradictions and fluctuations.
Conclusion: Sacrifice or spring pad?
$117000 is not only a technical barrier, but also a pricing benchmark for geopolitical risks. In the short term, the outcome of the nuclear talks will determine whether it becomes a "peace sacrifice" (breaking below 113800) or a "panic spring cushion" (rebounding and impacting 120000). But in the long run, BTC is still supported by two cornerstones:
Institutionalization process: The daily inflow of US ETFs exceeds 500 million US dollars, digesting the selling pressure of retail investors;
Inflation hedging attribute: If nuclear talks fail and energy prices soar, BTC will regain its "crisis alpha" characteristics.
Tonight, Bitcoin stands at the crossroads of war and peace, waiting for a bullet to decide its direction
Operation suggestion:
BTC 117200 long first target to see 118150 second target to see 119350
- ETH 4425 long first target view 4495 second target view 4565
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
