[NVIDIA Earnings Report Approaches, U.S. Stock Performance May Heighten Crypto Market Volatility]
Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital pointed out that the Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny, as Trump may assemble a team more aligned with his policy stance to push for a more dovish monetary policy. Currently, several members of the Federal Reserve Board are considered to lean toward supporting Trump. If Governor Lisa Cook is removed, the number of members aligned with Trump's stance could increase to four, laying the groundwork for future policy adjustments. Additionally, following the Jackson Hole meeting, the Federal Reserve's concerns about a slowdown in the labor market have intensified, potentially providing justification for a rate cut in September.
Meanwhile, AI leader NVIDIA is set to release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes today. The "Mag7," a group of seven major tech stocks including NVIDIA, accounts for approximately 33% of the S&P 500 index's weight. NVIDIA's performance will serve as a key indicator for assessing growth driven by AI spending. However, research from MIT shows that 95% of AI projects have not achieved profitability, and the marginal returns of new-generation large language models are diminishing. The cryptocurrency market has recently shown weak performance, primarily due to sell-offs by large holders. If U.S. stocks decline further, it could undermine traditional financial investors' confidence in Bitcoin, triggering a new round of risk-off moves.