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On the evening of September 14, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sudden turbulence: the once popular Bitcoin plummeted sharply, and other major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum also turned downwards. According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the number of positions liquidated on the entire network has approached 130000. This fluctuation occurred on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, triggering widespread market attention: is this a warning of greater risks, or is it just a false alarm?
[Sudden decline and liquidation]
The plunge of Bitcoin came suddenly and rapidly. As of the time of writing, its price has fallen from its intraday high. The liquidation scale of market contracts is huge, and the losses of long positions are particularly severe. This drastic fluctuation once again highlights the high-risk nature of the cryptocurrency market.
Federal Reserve interest rate meeting: Market holds its breath as it waits
The timing of Bitcoin's plunge this time is very subtle - just before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting. The market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this time. Interest rate cuts are often seen as a positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as a low interest rate environment may drive funds towards higher yielding assets. However, the market sometimes "buys expectations, sells facts", that is, pushing up prices in the expectation stage and taking profits after policies are implemented. The recent decline of Bitcoin may be due to some investors choosing to lock in profits before the uncertainty hits.
Is it a warning or a false alarm? There is a divergence in the market regarding the nature of Bitcoin's recent decline
1. Warning signal: Some analysts believe that the Fed's interest rate cuts are not entirely worry free. History shows that when the interest rate of the Federal Reserve rises to more than 5%, the interest rate reduction is sometimes accompanied by financial crises (such as the bursting of the Internet foam in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008). The US employment data has been consistently weak recently, and some even believe that the Federal Reserve may have missed the best opportunity to cut interest rates. If the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies may be the first to bear the brunt.
2. A false alarm? On the other hand, many investors who have long been optimistic about cryptocurrencies still hold a positive attitude. For example, the billionaire Winklevoss brothers predict that Bitcoin may reach $1 million within the next decade. They view short-term fluctuations as normal adjustments rather than trend reversals. From a technical analysis perspective, there is support for Bitcoin around $115000, and if this position is maintained, there is still hope for a volatile upward trend in the future.
[Outlook: Focus on Federal Reserve Resolutions and Market Sentiments]
In the short term, the trend of the cryptocurrency market largely depends on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the policy signals conveyed in the post meeting statements. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points and sends a dovish signal, market sentiment may rebound; If the dot plot shows a more cautious path for future interest rate cuts, or if multiple officials vote against it, market volatility may intensify.
The high-level decline of Bitcoin on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike undoubtedly sounded the alarm for the market and reminded investors to pay attention to risk management. However, it is still difficult to determine whether this means the end of the bull market. Whether it is a warning or a false alarm, perhaps more time and subsequent market performance are needed to verify. Investors may be wiser to remain cautious, avoid excessive leverage, and closely monitor macroeconomic policy trends in the current situation.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 115250 long first target watch 116550 second target watch 117765;
ETH 4630 long, first target is 4685, second target is 4750.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.