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The Bitcoin market is once again surging, and the price of $117300 seems to be just the starting point of a new round of upward trend, rather than the end point.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be the focus of attention, rising nearly 1% in the past 24 hours and trading above $117300. ”This threshold is considered an important hurdle by analysts, who predict a 70% chance of BTC hitting a new high in the next two weeks.
The overall market sentiment is optimistic, but there is fierce competition between long and short positions. Investors are facing a key question: Should they follow up decisively or remain cautious and wait?
01 Market situation, intense game of high volatility
——On the morning of September 19th Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market showed a mixed volatility pattern. Bitcoin once broke through $117900, but then experienced fluctuations.
——In the Altcoin community, differentiation is evident. Ethereum (ETH) fell slightly by 0.02%, falling below the $4600 mark, while BNB also fell nearly 0.5% to $982.
——On the contrary, Solana (SOL) rose more than 1% to $248, and XRP also rose slightly by 0.05%, maintaining above $3. This differentiation trend indicates that market capital flows are selectively distributed rather than concentrated through a single channel.
02 Driving factors, multiple forces working together to promote
——The rise of Bitcoin in this round is driven by various factors. Institutional investor capital is providing strong impetus for Bitcoin.
——In less than two weeks, the US Bitcoin ETF attracted $2.8 billion in inflows, indicating that market confidence is recovering. The continuous inflow of institutional funds provides strong purchasing power for the market.
——The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has also played a crucial role. At the end of Thursday (September 18th) in New York, the CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract rose 1.73% compared to the end of Wednesday in New York, approaching $118000.
The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut and the prospect of two more rate cuts this year have boosted market risk appetite.
Opinion 03: The market is in a state of equilibrium
——Cryptocurrency research expert Axel Adler Jr believes that the market is currently in a 'balanced state', neither overheating nor falling into a wave of selling.
——This balance is seen as a favorable foundation for Bitcoin to break through after a brief sideways trend, and investor sentiment is relatively stable, waiting for clearer trend signals.
——On chain data shows that retail investors are currently dominating the market, while whale activity remains sluggish, creating conditions for gradually climbing to $120000.
——This market structure driven by retail and limited whale activity makes the upward trend more robust.
04 Potential risks, warning signals for chasing high operations
——Despite the strong market performance, chasing high risks cannot be ignored. Some experts warn that the price may adjust to the range of $113000-114000 and then continue its upward trend.
——This important support area will test the resilience of the market. If Bitcoin remains above $117500, the scenario of a deep decline is unlikely to occur.
——The fact that altcoins have risen 4-10 times indicates that the current stage is not bottoming out. Based on this, there is a greater risk of retracement in the later stages of chasing higher prices, and traders should prioritize risk control, tighten stop losses, and establish profit taking rules.
05 Historical pattern, seasonal factors support upward trend
——The historical seasonal patterns also provide support for the rise of Bitcoin. 10 usually brings positive development to Bitcoin.
——When demand increases at specific times each year, coupled with ETF fund inflows and more positive market sentiment, Bitcoin can take advantage of opportunities to break through after sideways trading.
——The combination of technological structure, macro environment, and strong market positioning has created conditions that may enable BTC to break through the selling barrier of $120000.
The main CME Bitcoin futures contract closed up 1.73% in late trading in New York yesterday, approaching $118000. On chain data shows that retail investors are dominating the market, while whale activity remains sluggish, an environment that may support Bitcoin steadily climbing to the $120000 mark. But traders should remain cautious, as a sudden influx of whale activity could quickly trigger a pullback
Operation suggestion:
BTC 116850 long. First target: 117800. Second target: 118765;
ETH 4580 long first target watch 4630 second target watch 4680
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
