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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
1. Price performance and technical aspects
Current price: The current price of Bitcoin is about $111200, with a significant 24-hour increase, reaching a high of $111065.7.
Key resistance and support:
Resistance level: $109300-109800 (previous high and upper Bollinger Bands pressure).
Support level: 106000-106500 US dollars (strong support range, if it falls below, it may explore 104500 US dollars).
Technical Signal
The 1-hour chart shows that Bitcoin rebounded around $106000 and broke through the downtrend line. If it stabilizes at $107150, it may continue to rise to $109300 or even $110300.
In the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen back to the middle of the Bollinger Bands (around $107200), indicating a decrease in MACD momentum and a short-term or volatile pullback.
2. Market sentiment and driving factors
Expectation of Fed interest rate cut: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30th is as high as 99%, and the market's expectation of loose liquidity supports the rebound of risk assets.
Capital flow: In the past 24 hours, over 100000 people worldwide have liquidated their positions, with a total amount of 268 million US dollars, and the long short game is fierce.
End of month volatility risk: The Mentougou debt repayment event on October 31st and the end of month fund settlement may cause severe fluctuations.
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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
1. Price performance and technical aspects
Current price: Ethereum's current price is around $3884.53, dropping to a low of $3871.47 in 24 hours.
Key resistance and support:
Resistance level: $3920 (previous support turned to resistance level).
Support level: 3850-3830 US dollars (short-term key support, if it falls below, it may drop to 3750 US dollars).
Technical signal:
The 15 minute chart shows that the price has fallen below the 20 cycle moving average, and RSI has entered the oversold zone (below 30), but MACD still shows a bearish divergence, and short-term rebound may be limited.
The expansion of the Bollinger Bands reflects increased volatility, and the Fibonacci retracement level indicates a current level of 76.4%, which may temporarily halt the decline.
2. Market sentiment and driving factors
Impact of institutional holdings: Bitmine and other institutions have continued to increase their holdings of Ethereum (holding over 1.87 million units with a market value of approximately $8 billion), but the withdrawal volume from the exchange has increased, indicating that some funds have left.
Technology upgrade expectation: Ethereum's "Surge" upgrade in 2025 may improve network efficiency and boost prices in the long run, but it has not significantly boosted the market in the short term.
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Operational Recommendations
Bitcoin:
Long strategy: If the price retraces to the support level of $107150-106800, you can take a light long position with a target of $108900-109300 and a stop loss of $106150.
Short strategy: If you rebound to the resistance zone of $109300-109800, you can try shorting with a target of $107500 and a stop loss of $110000.
Ethereum:
Watch and see: Currently, the technical outlook is weak. It is recommended to wait for the confirmation of support at $3850 before considering short-term rebound opportunities, with a target of $3950-4000.
Risk control: If it falls below $3830, be alert to accelerating the decline to $3750.
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summary
Bitcoin is showing a volatile rebound trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of $109300 and the risk of end of month events; Ethereum technology is under pressure, with institutional holdings increasing and market selling pressure forming a game, and short-term weak fluctuations may continue. Investors need to closely track the Federal Reserve's policy trends and on chain fund flows, and control their positions reasonably.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.