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1、 Bitcoin (BTC) intraday trend analysis
1. Price and key positions
Current price: $114600, with a intraday fluctuation range of $113800-115500.
Core support: $114280 (short-term long short watershed). If it doesn't fall below, the bullish target is at $115800-117225, with an ultimate resistance of $119200.
Breaking risk: If it falls below $114280, it may drop to the support level of $112815 → $111180 → $109852.
2. Technical signal
1-hour chart: Prices move along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, KDJ forms a golden cross, MACD red bars amplify, and short-term bullish momentum still exists.
Daily level: The double bottom pattern has not been confirmed, but the inflow of institutional funds (net inflow of ETF of $446 million this week) provides bottom support.
3. Operational suggestions
Long strategy: Take a light long position in the range of $113800-114300, and look up at $115500-116500.
Short position strategy: If it breaks $114280, it can be shorted to $112800 with a stop loss of 500 points.
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2、 Ethereum (ETH) intraday trend analysis
1. Price and key positions
Current price: $4134, with intraday fluctuation range of $4150-4300.
Core support: 4157 US dollars (short-term rebound basis), if it does not fall below, the target is 4224 → 4294 → 4345 US dollars.
Breaking risk: If it falls below $4157, it may drop to the support level of $4113 → $4057 → $3997.
2. Technical signal
1-hour chart: The continuous bullish line has broken through the $4200 mark, with funding rates soaring to a historical high of 0.90, and leverage ratios showing bullish dominance.
Weekly level: showing a "bullish swallowing+double needle bottoming out" pattern, breaking through $4294 or opening a new uptrend.
3. Operational suggestions
Long strategy: Take a light long position of $4100 and target $4200-4255 (short-term resistance).
Short position strategy: If it breaks $4157, it can be shorted to $4100 with a stop loss of 50 points.
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3、 Market sentiment and linkage factors
1. Institutional funding trends
The Bitcoin ETF continued to receive inflows ($446 million), while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow for two consecutive weeks ($244 million), indicating a short-term shift in fund preference towards BTC.
Binance dominates the $2.55 trillion futures market, and ecological confidence supports the rebound of mainstream currencies.
2. Macro impact
The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is heating up (with a probability of 95%), and the rebound in risk appetite has pushed the total market value of cryptocurrencies to $3.91 trillion.
The signal of easing trade between China and the United States has boosted the market, but there is still uncertainty in geopolitics.
3. Performance of altcoins
Privacy coins (ZEC+24%, DASH+20%) and meme coins (PAYAI, VIRTUAL) led the gains, but liquidity was concentrated in top assets.
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Conclusion:
Bitcoin: Short term bullish probability is high, focus on the support of $114280, and be cautious of a pullback if it breaks.
Ethereum: Strong in technical aspects, but needs to break through $4294 to open up upward space, with financial pressure or restrictions on gains.
Operational strategy: Prioritize focusing on BTC/ETH support levels and test long positions with light positions, strictly stop losses, and satellite positions can be placed in hot targets such as ZEC and PAYAI.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
