[Partial Rebound in U.S. Treasuries, Market Focuses on Data Recovery and Rate Cut Expectations]
Driven by gains in UK government bonds, U.S. Treasuries recovered some of last week's losses. Despite Amazon issuing $12 billion in corporate bonds, which caused early setbacks in the corporate debt market, the Treasury rebound continued. On Monday, New York State factory activity unexpectedly rose to a one-year high, but most Treasury yields still fell by 1 to 3 basis points. The market predicts that the recovery of federal economic data may boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by mid-2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will drop to 3.75%, with the most optimistic scenario reaching 2.40%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September economic data on November 20. The Federal Reserve has previously cut rates by 0.25 percentage points for two consecutive months.