BitMEX founder: Bitcoin bull market may continue until 2028

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Maximilian Michielsen, an analyst at cryptocurrency ETP issuer 21Shares, stated that the drop in Bitcoin price below $100000 has raised concerns in the market about a bear market, but this decline is considered a short-term correction rather than the beginning of a deep or long-term bear market. Although volatility and consolidation may continue until the end of the year, fundamental factors remain stable. The recent weakness of Bitcoin is mainly affected by forced liquidation, large investor sell offs, ETF fund outflows, and liquidity tightening caused by macro events. Since October, the market has experienced a deleveraging of $32 billion, with a liquidation scale of $3 billion in the past week; Large investors sold approximately $12 billion worth of Bitcoin; The spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a capital outflow of $866 million last Thursday, setting the second highest daily outflow record in history. In addition, the US government shutdown has led to the Treasury Department withdrawing approximately $150 billion in cash from the financial system, exacerbating liquidity tensions. Nevertheless, the selling pressure on long-term investors has significantly weakened, and assets are being transferred to more stable holders. Liquidity conditions are expected to improve, the quantitative tightening in the United States is expected to end in December, government spending will resume, and the global money supply will continue to expand. The attractiveness of Bitcoin as a value storage tool is increasing in the macroeconomic context. Analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a short-term bear market technically, but this decline is more like a valuation reset than a deep bear market. Historical data shows that this magnitude of pullback typically ends within 1 to 3 months and marks the consolidation phase before the next round of uptrend. The long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin remain stable.

[Brazilian Congressman Proposes Granting Courts the Power to Freeze Crypto Assets of Cybercrime Suspects] Brazilian Federal Congressman Chrisóstomo de Moura has proposed a bill suggesting that courts be granted the authority to freeze or confiscate the cryptocurrency assets of cybercrime suspects. The bill allows judges to freeze cryptocurrency wallets and traditional financial assets either proactively or at the request of prosecutors when dealing with fraud-related crimes. The congressman also proposed the establishment of a 'National Fraud Victim Compensation Fund' to provide immediate assistance to victims and called for stricter penalties for cybercriminals. The bill is currently under committee review, and a final analysis will take time.

**[Wintermute: BTC Needs to Regain Momentum to Drive Broad Market Recovery]** On November 18, Wintermute released a report stating that over the past week, the market has primarily digested the sharp adjustment in expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 70% to 42%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's ambiguous stance on rate cuts has led the market to reassess the differences among FOMC members, resulting in a general weakening of risk assets, with the crypto market being hit the hardest. The report pointed out that digital assets continue to underperform across asset classes, with BTC and ETH lagging behind even altcoins during this downturn. This is partly because altcoins had already been experiencing prolonged declines, while niche sectors like privacy coins have shown resilience. Additionally, whale position adjustments have exacerbated volatility, even though the selling pressure lacks fundamental deterioration and is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Wintermute believes that the current macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable, but market recovery requires BTC to return to the upper range of its volatility band. The stabilization of leading assets is a critical signal. Policy and interest rate expectations may serve as key catalysts, and once BTC regains momentum, the market will have a solid foundation for broad recovery.

Bitwise, the issuer of Bitcoin ETFs, stated in a CNBC livestream that the Bitcoin market has hit bottom and referred to the current situation as a 'generational buying opportunity'. （The Bitcoin Historian）