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Cake eating expert: May 1.18, 2023 Real time price: $90000-93000 (multiple platforms have fallen below $90k); In the past month, from 126000 to the current, there has been a sharp drop of 28%, and all the gains in 2025 have been reversed.
1、 The reason for this sharp decline
——Trump's dividend has been overdrawn in advance, expectations of Fed interest rate cuts have cooled down, institutions have cashed out at high levels, ETFs have continued to flow out, and the death spiral of leverage liquidation=a perfect storm.
——In the past month, the market value has plummeted by about 2730% from the historical high of $126000 in October, evaporating over $600 billion and completely wiping out the full year gains of 2025. The current price is equivalent to the level of February to March 2025.
——Recent market review: From frenzy to panic, it took less than 6 weeks. October peak: BTC broke through $126000, setting a new historical high. The main driving factors include the market's overly optimistic expectations of "pro crypto policies" after Trump's election (tax cuts, relaxed regulations, rumors of Bitcoin strategic reserves).
——The continuous inflow of spot ETFs (especially institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity). The typical bull market continues after the fourth halving (April 2024).
2、 Technical aspect: All bottom signals have been blinded by the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average → The fourth death cross of this round, with the first three being large bottoms. Near the weekly RSI 30, it is deeply oversold, with prices strongly supported by the 50 week moving average (88~92k) and a panic index of 14 (the lowest in three years). Selling pressure has almost dried up
3、 The fundamentals remain hardcore, with total holdings of over 1.1 million BTC in ETFs, and the long-term inflow trend remains unchanged.
Enterprises (such as MSTR) continue to increase their holdings, and in the 19th month after the halving, the main upward trend in history has just begun. All negative basic prices are in, while positive ones are still on the way
4、 Three scenarios:
Pessimistic (30%): Explore 80-85k again and take off after completing adjustments;
Benchmark (50%): 8893k has a direct double bottom, with a rebound of 100000 at the end of November and a surge of 11.13 million in December;
Optimistic (20%): Violent rebound this week, with over 150000 by the end of the year;
5、 Current advice for cake lovers:
Radical old railway: get on the train in batches below 90k, stop loss 87k;
Robust old railway: wait for breaking 98~100k;
Long term holding: lying flat, this is just a normal pullback in bull markets, history has always set new highs;
Leverage? Decline for now, spot and fixed investment are the most popular options
Summary in one sentence:
The 28% pullback has washed away all the leeks, high leverage, and air pollution. Bitcoin around 90k is the most precious ticket to get on the bus from 2025 to 2026. The bull market is not dead, we just shook off our weak hands. The next stop is 150000+, let's get on the car! (For reference only, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency carries risks. Brothers, eat your cake rationally!)
Tencent Meeting: 3085908645
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.