[Independent Researcher Warns of $610 Billion AI Funding Chain Collapse Risk]
On November 21, independent financial market researcher Pereira stated that Nvidia's stock price briefly rose by 5% after its earnings report but sharply declined within 18 hours. Pereira pointed out anomalies in Nvidia's financial data: accounts receivable grew by 89% in one year to $33.4 billion, payment cycles extended to 53 days, and chip inventory increased by 32% to $19.8 billion; $19.3 billion in profits only translated into $14.5 billion in cash flow, with a conversion rate of 75%, lower than the industry average of 95%.
Pereira revealed issues within the AI ecosystem's funding loop: funds circulating among Nvidia, xAI, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle are accounted for as revenue, but the cash has not materialized. He mentioned that Peter Thiel and SoftBank have sold off large amounts of Nvidia stock, while Michael Burry has purchased put options. Bitcoin's price has dropped from $126,000 to $86,000, and if Nvidia's stock price falls another 40%, it could trigger $23 billion in forced Bitcoin liquidations.
Pereira predicts that by 2026, Nvidia may face an AI bubble collapse due to bad debt exposure and credit rating downgrades. He advises investors to focus on assets driven by 'thermodynamics and game theory.'