Polymarket predicts a 13% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Increased Downside Risk to Employment] The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that members unanimously believe economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased as of September, with recent indicators aligning with these trends. Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level. The committee is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate, and downside risks to employment have increased in recent months.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Emphasize Purpose of Treasury Purchases] The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that policymakers emphasized that Treasury purchases are solely intended to ensure interest rate stability and are unrelated to monetary policy.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Participants Concerned About Inflation Risks Becoming Entrenched] The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that several participants pointed out the risk of persistently high inflation potentially becoming entrenched and suggested that further rate cuts might be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment by the Fed to the 2% inflation target.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Some Participants Support Keeping Rates Stable] The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that some participants believe it is appropriate to keep rates stable 'for a period of time' after the rate cut in December.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Show Majority of Participants Support December Rate Cut] Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that the majority of participants support implementing a rate cut in December.