1. First, let's talk about what happened last night?
The US non-farm payrolls for August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding economists' expectations of around 56,000. Once the data was released, non-USD commodities and currencies experienced a quick drop, and the market's bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut cooled instantly.
But the plot immediately reversed —
Trump once again pressured the Federal Reserve, demanding significant rate cuts, even threatening: if the Federal Reserve does not comply, he will cut off trade relations with countries that have a trade deficit with the United States. When the news broke, the market's decline was noticeably narrowed, and short sellers did not dare to chase too deep.
On the other hand, stock indices closed lower, with all three major indices in the red. But there was one bright spot that stood out 👇
The AI chip supply chain collectively strengthened, with SanDisk and SK Hynix soaring.
Funds did not leave the market; they just changed direction — shifting from macro risk aversion back to the AI computing power sector, the toughest track.
2. ETH Technical Analysis: The range hasn't broken, don't rush to chase
Back to the market, let’s first look at the key range.
▎On the 4-hour level, the market is still fluctuating in the 2543-2356 range
Simply put, ETH retraced quickly from a high last night, but it did not break through, and overall it is still fluctuating within the range that we have repeatedly emphasized.
Here’s a trading discipline to remind everyone:
If the risk-reward ratio is not suitable, don’t rush to enter.
Yesterday's "direct drop from a high" approach, if you wanted to short, chasing in would mean shorting at a low position, with a large stop-loss and small room for profit, purely a risky bet — not worth it.
▎So what are we waiting for?
We are waiting for an opportunity to rebound to around 2483 to perform a short position:
Entry reference: Around 2483
Stop-loss: 2420
Target: 2356 (lower edge of the range)
The logic is simple: only when it rebounds to the upper part of the range can the shorts have a sufficient risk-reward advantage; think about the downside space only after breaking through the lower edge of the range.
⚠️ Reminder: In a fluctuating market, the worst mistake is to chase highs and kill on lows. It's better to miss out than to make mistakes. If it hasn't reached 2483, be patient; not holding a position means not losing money.
If you want to know more details and specific operations, see you in the live broadcast room tonight, we will analyze the market live and look at the K-line discussing the logic.
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