2026-09-05 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Smoke and Rain
On the first trading day after the non-farm payrolls were released, BTC did not continue to decline, nor did it quickly recover its losses, instead hovering around 79,500. It fell about 3.4% from the high of 82,279.9, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover on the 4-hour chart, but a bullish crossover on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, indicating a short-term recovery. More noteworthy is the news front—negative and positive news hitting at the same time, what exactly is the market trading?
01 Market Status: Plummeting from 82,000 to 79,500, signals across multiple cycles are diverging
First, let’s take a look at the market structure. On the 4-hour chart, BTC surged from a low of 76,204.5 to a high of 82,279.9 (an increase of about 8%) before retracting, with a bearish crossover on the MACD (DIF 1018.1, DEA 1409.3, MACD histogram -782.3), signaling a major cycle adjustment. However, on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, the MACD shows bullish crossovers (1-hour DIF 1097.0, DEA 814.3, histogram 565.4; 15-minute DIF 25.1, DEA 12.2, histogram 25.9), indicating a short-term attempt to recover.
This combination of "bearish crossover in the large cycle + bullish crossover in the small cycle" usually indicates that the market has entered a period of consolidation—although the broader direction is under adjustment pressure, there is a demand for recovery after the short-term overselling. In terms of positioning, the upper level of 82,279.9 represents previous high resistance, while 81,378.8 is a secondary high; below, 78,610.6 is the plunge low point, and 76,204.5 is the support of the previous low. The market is re-pricing within the range defined by these two sets of levels.
02 Bearish Factors: Interest rate hike probability rises to 60%, institutions are reducing leverage
After the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the most direct change is the reversal of interest rate expectations: the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to over 60%—just a few days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut. The rapid shift in expectations is the core driver behind BTC's plunge from 82,000.
Actions from institutions also confirm this cautious approach. CME's latest positions report shows that BTC holdings are at 19,697 contracts, down 11.33% week-on-week; ETH holdings are at 24,619 contracts, down 8.37% week-on-week—after the data was released, institutions actively reduced their leveraged positions. The external markets mirrored this downturn: U.S. stocks opened lower (Dow Jones down 164 points, Nasdaq down 11 points, S&P 500 down 0.13%), while spot gold plunged $70 shortly after the non-farm data, and silver fell $1.5—both risk assets and safe-haven assets are under pressure, indicating a broad decline driven by "dollar/rates," rather than issues specific to a single market.
Additionally, there is another risk event that needs to be digested: 1,789 BTC stolen from a Coldcard wallet, hackers starting to exchange ETH through THORChain—the selling pressure from the large stolen cache will gradually be released on-chain.
03 Bullish Factors: Political pressure for interest rate cuts, funding and compliance are progressing
However, on the other side of the bearish factors, bullish elements are also accumulating. Politically, Trump has been consistently vocal: calling for the Fed to lower interest rates, stating that "hiking rates cannot ensure stability in the bond market"—the political pressure on the Fed is increasing, contrasting sharply with the "60% rate hike probability" expectation.
On the capital front, there are also highlights: Coinbase Pro saw an influx of 4,726 BTC in the past 24 hours, valued at about $473 million, with the current BTC wallet balance at the exchange being 851,200 BTC—during the pullback, large funds are accumulating positions through compliant exchanges, signaling that "someone is buying during the decline."
Compliance is also progressing: the main U.S. law enforcement agency, the NSA, is no longer opposing the cryptocurrency Clarity Act, indicating that regulatory legislative obstacles are decreasing; in the UK, Hargreaves Lansdown has opened Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN products to 2 million customers, broadening the institutional allocation channel. Geopolitically, Trump stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict "is not a big deal" (comparing the 18 American military deaths to the tens of thousands from Vietnam and Afghanistan wars) and claimed significant achievements regarding Iran—showing signs of decreasing geopolitical risk premium.
04 What to Watch Next?
The conclusion of the non-farm payrolls does not mean the end of suspense; key variables to track are four groups:
Interest rate path: Can the probability of a rate hike in September maintain over 60%, the negotiation between Trump’s pressure and Fed independence, and the direction of August CPI data;
Institutional movements: Will CME positions continue to decline, can large inflows into compliant exchanges like Coinbase be sustained;
Key positions: The losses and gains at BTC's 78,610.6/76,204.5 support and 82,279.9/81,378.8 resistance, determining whether the range continues or breaks;
Risk events: The selling progress of the 1,789 BTC stolen from Coldcard, and the on-chain movements of the hackers exchanging ETH via THORChain.
The release of the non-farm payrolls did not provide a one-sided answer; instead, it laid out both sides of the narrative. Rate hike expectations are warming up, and political pressure is ramping up; institutions are reducing leverage while funds are flowing in. At times like this, understanding the logic is more important than predicting the direction—do not pre-judge, just respond, and maintain respect for the market. SafeX: Annxvvc
The above content is based on a logical inference from publicly available market information and macroeconomic data, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please make rational judgments and pay attention to risks.
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