2026-09-05 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Smoke and Rain
After the non-farm payroll data was released, ETH fell alongside BTC, losing the $2500 mark, dropping about 1.7% from a high of $2548.37. However, ETH's situation is more complicated than BTC's—on one hand, after 1789 BTC were stolen from a Coldcard wallet, hackers began exchanging ETH through THORChain, creating additional selling pressure; on the other hand, Hargreaves Lansdown in the UK just opened Ethereum ETN to 2 million customers, with compliance progressing. This article breaks down the current long and short game surrounding ETH.
01 Current Market Situation: Losing 2500, Shocking Between 2355-2548
First, let's look at the charts. The 1-hour ETH chart shows the price fluctuating widely within the range of 2355.56—2548.37, currently near 2505. In terms of MACD, DIF is -1.21, DEA is -4.20, and MACD histogram is 5.98—though a golden cross has formed, DIF remains below the zero axis, indicating that the short-term recovery momentum is weak, resembling a technical rebound after an over-sell rather than a trend strengthening.
In terms of rhythm, ETH rebounded from a low of 2355.56 to a high of 2548.37 (an increase of about 8.2%) before falling back, temporarily losing the $2500 mark. From a positional standpoint, the upper limit of 2548.37 is prior high pressure, 2500 is a psychological mark; below, 2355.56 is prior low support. The market is re-pricing within the range created by these two sets of positions, awaiting new directional signals.
02 Short-Term Pressure: Hackers are Selling, Institutions are Reducing
ETH's most direct short-term pressure comes from an uncommon source: after the theft of 1789 BTC from a Coldcard wallet, hackers did not directly sell BTC but began exchanging it for ETH through THORChain. This means the selling pressure from the stolen assets has shifted from BTC to ETH—ETH is bearing additional selling pressure that is not generated by natural market trading. The 1789 BTC, at the current price, is approximately $140 million, corresponding to a significant amount of ETH, and the progress of the exchanges and sales needs to be continuously monitored.
Institutions are also contracting. The latest CME weekly report shows ETH holdings at 24619 contracts, a decrease of 8.37% week-on-week—after the non-farm data release, institutions actively reduced their leveraged exposure to ETH. On a macro level, stronger-than-expected non-farm data has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to over 60%, putting overall pressure on high beta assets; ETH, typically more elastic than BTC, tends to experience more severe fluctuations.
03 Mid-Term Support: ETN Channel Just Opened, Compliance is Progressing
However, on the flip side of the pressure, support is also accumulating. Hargreaves Lansdown in the UK has opened Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN products to 2 million customers—this is the first large-scale opening of ETH ETN to retail customers by a mainstream wealth management platform in Europe, meaning that the compliance configuration channel of ETH is significantly broadening. For long-term funds, the ability to participate through compliant channels is a key threshold for deciding whether to engage, and this threshold is lowering.
Compared to BTC, which has an American spot ETF, has 401(k) pension inclusion, and has large inflows to Coinbase; although ETH's progress towards compliance is a step behind, the opening of the UK ETN is an important signal—regulatory and institutional acceptance of ETH is increasing. A more fundamental narrative is that as a smart contract platform, ETH has an L2 ecosystem, has staking rewards, and has genuine on-chain activities supporting it, and these core values will not disappear due to short-term price fluctuations.
04 What to Watch Next?
For ETH's next direction, focus on tracking four sets of variables:
On-chain movements: The progress of hackers exchanging ETH through THORChain, how much ETH corresponds to the 1789 BTC, whether the exchange and selling have been completed—this is the most direct source of short-term selling pressure;
Institutional movements: Whether CME ETH holdings continue to decline, whether there is sustained capital inflow after the UK ETN products go live, and which is faster—reducing leverage or new funding;
Key positions: The gains and losses of the 2355.56 low and 2548.37 prior high, and whether the $2500 mark can stabilize again, determining whether the range continues or breaks;
Macro linkage: Changes in the probability of a rate hike in September, progress on Trump’s pressure for rate cuts, the trend of August CPI data—these macro variables determine the overall valuation environment for ETH.
The current situation of ETH is a race between short-term selling pressure and mid-term compliance. Hackers are selling, institutions are reducing, but the ETN channel has just opened—whose pace is faster will determine whether ETH continues to bottom out or strengthens again. No predictions, only responses, maintaining reverence for the market. SafeX: Annxvvc
The above content is based on logical deduction from publicly available market and on-chain information, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please judge rationally and pay attention to risks.
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