Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 The frenzied bull market of Bitcoin has restarted, with the $120000 mark being forcefully broken through, just one step away from a historic high. Behind this capital feast is the combined efforts of institutional funds, seasonal patterns, and global risk aversion. The Bitcoin market is permeated with a familiar frenzy. On October 3, 2025, this cryptocurrency king broke through the $120000 mark with an unstoppable momentum, reaching its highest level in seven weeks and just one step away from its historical high of $124514 set on August 14. This surge is not an isolated event. Bitcoin has risen for the sixth consecutive trading day, with a cumulative increase of 10% since September 26th. With this surge, bears have been hit hard - the amount of short contracts cleared in a single day reached $475 million. The surge in Bitcoin this time is not caused by a single factor, but by the joint efforts of multiple parties. The US federal government has once again "shut down" after nearly 7 years, and Bitcoin, as the "digital gold", is once again seen by investors as a safe haven tool in the market turmoil. At the same time, traditional safe haven asset gold experienced a decline after breaking record highs. Macro themes have recently dominated the trend of Bitcoin, with Bitcoin ETFs recording inflows of up to $1.5 billion this week. Karim Dandashy, an off exchange trader at cryptocurrency trading company Flowdesk, stated that these fund inflows seem to be catching up with the astonishing rise of gold in recent weeks. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, believes that the "compression spring" pattern in the Bitcoin market may be unfolding. He explained that spot orders have been under selling pressure for several months, but prices have not clearly broken, indicating a stronger acceptance than wait-and-see sentiment. Once the selling pressure above is digested, the market may soar rapidly. 【 02 Reproduction of Historical Patterns 】 The myth of October is unfolding in the market. According to historical data, October is a historically strong month for Bitcoin, with nine increases in the past decade, and the fourth quarter is usually the strongest. Syncrace Capital co-founder Ryan Watkins pointed out that this seasonal expectation is expected to drive the upward trend to continue. Data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has experienced 10 gains and only 2 losses in October, with an average increase of 20.24%. This phenomenon is referred to as "Uptober" by the market, which means "rising in October". This term is a combination of "up" and "October". In history, when Bitcoin closed higher in September - as in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024- the average return rate for the last quarter of that year exceeded 53%. How far can we go in the future Faced with the current raging bull market, what investors are most concerned about is: how far can this rally go? Market analysts have made exciting predictions. Citigroup predicts that Bitcoin may reach $181000 in the next year, while renowned analyst PlanB even believes that it may challenge the $250000 mark in 2026. PlanB pointed out that Bitcoin had already crossed the bull bear boundary as early as June 2025 and entered a "no return road", similar to the historic bull market stages of October 2020, February 2017, and January 2013. Technical analysis also provides optimistic clues. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the "short-term holder to market ratio" of Bitcoin suggests that the next key resistance level may be around $130000, which was once a concentration area for significant profit taking selling pressure in the past. [04 Potential Risks] Despite the optimistic market outlook, potential risks cannot be ignored. Citigroup warns that macroeconomic risks such as economic recession may still undermine bull market expectations. The bank's scenario analysis covers a wide range: if the stock market rebounds and capital inflows accelerate, Bitcoin may reach a high of $156000. Under economic recession conditions, it may be as low as $83000. Market volatility is also a reality that investors must face. In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $114442 and $119400, indicating high volatility that combines high risk and high return. As Bitcoin approaches its historical high, market attention is focused on the key question: what height will it break through this time? Citigroup's one-year target of $181000 sounds exciting, while PlanB's prediction of $250000 has ignited market imagination. However, cryptocurrency investment firm XWIN researcher Japan reminds investors that although recent volatility has made traders uneasy, on chain data continues to indicate that BTC's bull market is not over yet. The recent pullback doesn't seem like the end of a rebound, but rather a period of market digestion Operation suggestion: BTC 119500 long. First target: 120850. Second target: 121765; ETH 4465 long first target to see 4510 second target to see 4575 Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.

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