[Analysis Indicates Divergence Between Gold and Bitcoin Trends May Persist]
Matrixport released a chart analysis today, stating that based on the implied pricing of federal funds futures, the market expects an 84% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on December 10, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in January next year has risen to 65%. Under this expected interest rate path, even if the rate cut materializes in December, the overall easing of monetary policy will remain limited. Gold is more closely correlated with the U.S. fiscal deficit and the pace of government bond issuance, showing a more direct response in hedging against fiscal expansion and rate cut expectations. In contrast, Bitcoin relies more on the inflow of incremental funds, and currently, incremental liquidity has yet to be significantly released. In this environment, the divergence between gold and Bitcoin trends is highly likely to persist in the short term.