Goldman Sachs lowers the probability of a US economic recession to 25%

According to Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs, the probability of an economic recession in the United States over the next 12 months has been reduced from 30% to 25%. Despite the tense situation in Iran, international oil prices have not risen significantly, and US employment and domestic demand data have shown robust performance. In April, there were 115000 new non farm jobs added, higher than the expected 65000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Private domestic sales in the first quarter increased by 2.5% year-on-year, demonstrating the resilience of domestic demand. The Goldman Sachs Financial Condition Index has fallen back to pre war levels, and the overall financial environment is becoming more relaxed.