According to Glassnode, although Bitcoin has regained its true market average of $78300, it has not been able to sustain its position. According to historical cycles, it may take weeks to months for a bull market to consolidate before transitioning. The profit loss ratio of the 30 day moving average has risen from 0.4 in February to 1.8, and it needs to be maintained above 2 to confirm the recovery of buyer power. The 30 day cost baseline of $78200 has shifted to resistance level, and the accumulated group cost baseline of $71400 is currently at support level. The weak demand in the spot market, lagging activity on Coinbase, and an increase in open contracts on CME futures indicate an improvement in institutional participation in the derivatives market. The accumulation of US spot ETFs is slowing down, and the options market is leaning towards defense. The negative gamma range around $75000 may exacerbate price volatility.
