According to CME Federal Reserve observation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has basically subsided, and the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate hike has emerged. By the end of 2026, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 40.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point and 50 basis point rate hike are 41.6% and 14.6%, respectively, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting is 1.7%.
