After the implementation of the US Iran agreement, BTC returned to 65000, with a 90% win rate. The giant whale went short against the trend. What is the market trading?

After the US Iran agreement was reached, the most direct change in the market was not the rise of BTC, but the rapid retreat of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously suppressed risky assets. BTC rebounded to 65000 USDT, ETH rebounded synchronously, crude oil fell sharply, and safe haven assets such as gold and silver did not experience panic selling. This means that funds are currently more inclined to define events as "risk release" rather than the beginning of a new crisis. It is worth noting that on chain funds have not fully formed a consistent expectation. According to the monitoring of embers, a giant whale with a historical winning rate of over 90% has established approximately 17000 ETH short positions near $1717.8, with a size of nearly $30 million. According to normal logic, high win rate traders often represent the most sensitive group of funds in the market, but their choice to short positions happens to occur after the macro sentiment has significantly improved. This means that the biggest contradiction in the current market has emerged: Macro positive news is driving capital to return to risky assets, and some smart money believes that the rebound is close to the stage of redemption. On the other hand, "Maji" chose to continue standing on the bullish side. According to on chain data, its latest holdings of approximately 6000 ETH in 25 times leverage multiple orders have a clearing price around $1678.77. For the market, this actually provides a very clear observation window - as long as ETH remains above $1680, the bullish structure remains intact; Once lost, it may trigger a lever stomp. From the perspective of BTC structure, $65000 has shifted from its previous important pressure level to a short-term long short watershed. At present, what the market really needs to verify is not the message itself, but whether the implementation of the agreement will bring sustained incremental funds. If BTC can continue to stand above $65000 in the next 24 to 48 hours, while the trading volume increases synchronously, then this upward trend is more likely to evolve into a continuation of the trend; On the contrary, if the quantity cannot be followed up, one should be wary of profit taking after the realization of positive news. Key focus area: Support: 64500/63750 USDT Pressure: 65950/66750 USDT The most valuable information in the market at present is not the price increase, but that both long and short sides have revealed their trump cards: on one hand, the 90% win rate whale is short selling at a high level, and on the other hand, the highly leveraged long side is firmly defending the $1680 defense line. Whoever surrenders first will become the fuel for the next market trend. Risk Warning: The market fluctuates greatly, and this article is only for market information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.