Multiple investment banks have warned that due to inventory shortages and geopolitical risks, oil prices may return to above $90 in the third quarter. Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, stated that it will take weeks or even months for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre war levels. Westpac believes that during the strait blockade, global inventory consumption was significant, and subsequent pressure to replenish inventory intensified market tension. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, predicts that there will still be an inventory gap of approximately 800 million barrels in the global crude oil market as of November this year. Willem Sels, Chief Investment Officer of HSBC Private Banking, stated that energy shocks have had spillover effects on weak links in the global economy.
