Federal Reserve updates median unemployment rate forecast for 2026-2028

The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic outlook shows that the median expectations for unemployment rates from 2026 to the end of 2028 are 4.3%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively, with March expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve's fine-tuning of its expectations for the medium to long term unemployment rate reflects the latest assessment by decision-makers of the supply-demand balance in the labor market. This data confirms that the job market will maintain a relatively stable level of natural unemployment in the coming years. This expectation eliminates the risk of a significant economic recession and provides support for the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral interest rate policy. The market has adjusted the pricing of the long-term interest rate center based on this, strengthening the policy narrative of an economic soft landing.