According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 34.2%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 33.6%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 49.7%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.7%.
AI interpretation: The current pricing of interest rate futures market clearly reflects the Federal Reserve's policy tendency to maintain high interest rates in the short term. Market participants' divergent expectations for the subsequent interest rate hike path have intensified, indicating deep concerns about the risk of inflation rebound. This pricing structure directly suppressed the market's optimism about rapid interest rate cuts within the year. The long-term high interest rate environment has become a core consensus in the current financial market, which will continue to put pressure on the valuation of risk assets.
