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Hello everyone, I am Cannon Teacher. Live broadcast at 10 pm tonight. After yesterday's sharp decline, there is a stabilizing signal in the market today. Let's focus on the key points.
BTC fell below the integer level of $60000 yesterday, hitting a low in the range of $58100-58130, reaching a new low since September 2024. Subsequently, it quickly rebounded to around 59800 and is currently oscillating and recovering within the range of 59500-60000. 24-hour micro amplitude consolidation shows some convergence in volatility.
Key position: Upper pressure 60300-60600 (primary resistance), breakthrough to 61400; The support below is 59300-59000, and 58800 is currently the strongest defense line.
ETH fell synchronously to around 1532 yesterday, and even continued to drop to 1510 at 11 am, breaking through last night's low point. Currently, it has rebounded to the 1560-1570 area for consolidation. The trend of ETH is significantly weaker than BTC, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to be under pressure.
Key position: Upper pressure 1568-1580, breakthrough is seen at 1600-1618; Support 1540-1532 below.
Today's core signals on the market
Signal 1: Prototype of double bottom support appears near 58100-58500
Yesterday, BTC's low point of 58100 echoed the previous low point, receiving support in the same area twice in a row. This position has been verified as effective short-term support. The 1-hour level has already emerged from the small double bottom structure. If the volume can break through the neck line area near 60300-60600 in the future, the rebound space will be further opened up.
Signal 2: The panic selling phase has been released temporarily
Yesterday's panic selling was accompanied by a concentrated release of trading volume, and the recent decline in volume indicates that the worst stage of emotions may have passed. The Fear and Greed Index hovers in the extreme fear range of 12-13, and historically, technical fixes often occur within 1-2 weeks after such extreme readings.
Signal 3: PCE data bearish has been partially priced
The core PCE in the United States rose 3.4% year-on-year in May, reaching a three-year high, and the overall PCE rose to 4.1%. After the data was released, the market has experienced a rapid decline. The current stabilization movement of 59500-60000 indicates that the bearish sentiment is gradually being digested by the market, rather than triggering a new round of price drops.
Macro suppression still exists, rebound qualitative must be clear
Although there are signs of stabilization in the short term, we still need to face the unfavorable factors in the current macro environment: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to 48%, ETFs have been net outflows for several consecutive days, and the sharp decline in Strategy's stock price has raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of institutional holdings. Before the clear recovery of 62800-63100, all rebounds will still be treated as technical repairs, and the signal of turning to the middle line for bullish still needs to be confirmed.
See you at 10 o'clock, the 60000 mark has been lost and regained. The window for change is right in front of us. Let's clarify our strategy before taking action.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
