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Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged this year, but warns that a drop in the unemployment rate below 4% or sustained high inflation will force the Fed to reconsider raising interest rates. Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist Michael Gapen said that data since the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting has given him peace of mind about not raising interest rates, citing reasons such as the drop in oil prices after the US Iran memorandum of understanding and expectations that the tariff transfer phenomenon is coming to an end.