According to CME Federal Reserve observations, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 11.2%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 44%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 4.7%.
AI interpretation: The consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term is extremely stable, reflecting that the current monetary policy path has entered a highly determined observation period. The probability of maintaining the status quo in interest rates is absolutely dominant, directly blocking the policy space for recent interest rate hikes. This pricing logic completely eliminates the interference of short-term policy shifts, and the market focus has completely shifted to the game of subsequent interest rate cuts. The current interest rate expectation structure clearly anchors the policy tone of the Federal Reserve maintaining its tightening stance in the summer.
